While Apple fanboys round the world have been whetting their appetites for the last weeks on iPad 2 rumours, John Gruber of Daring Fireball drops the… well, fireball I guess. iPad 3, out next fall.
Yes, it’s true that the rumored iPad 2, a mere slimmer version of the iPad, with a front facing camera, is not really that big a change. No better screen, for example.
But still, to come up a new version within six months of the previous one coming out is a risky strategy indeed.
If the rumor is true, Apple is going to drop the price of the first gen iPad only a little when the version 2 comes out and expects most people who want an iPad will buy the 2.
But the device’s shelf life will be very short, since the same transition will take place again after six months. By that time, the first gen iPads will be quickly disappearing from retail.
This is what we’ve seen happen with the iPhone, but the cycle was three or four years. This would all happen within about 16 months.
The tablet market is growing rapidly, with 2011 already dubbed as the Year of the Tablet. Apple wants to be there every step of the way, gearing their design and production lines to even faster innovation and change. That is likely to be the case, even if this rumor isn’t true.
EDIT: As said in the comments, Gruber was likely just guessing. But then again, his guesses are often good. And this one isn’t anymore just a guess, but officially a rumor. Welcome to the wacky world of Apple rumors.
Is it a rumor or just an idea? Gruber says he pulled it out of his hat.
But as usual, he makes a good point.
Gruber doesn’t bring this up, but fall could make sense when you consider the appropriate release order of new tech:
iPhone still is the most important product of the iOS bunch, so giving away the latest trends with an early iPad release may not be that smart in a long run.
For instance, in what order they are going to introduce the NFC (or something else new) implementation in iOS devices? iPad first or iPhone first?
If the new tech feature is highly mobile (NFC tickets, payments) iPad doesn’t make sense. Could Apple just postpone the iPad 2 release to fall?
Or just release the lo-end wifi only -version only now (there are attractions: new form factor, improved non-retina display, iOS tweaks, more RAM, camera(s), 128 GB SSD…) and the 3G/GPS/new tech (NFC) -version later. The shift to Verizon/CDMA gives an exellent excuse to release the hybrid 3G model later.
Thank you for your comments, Erkka!
As often is with these things, Gruber’s point has become a rumor, even though it wasn’t one to start with.
I think you are exactly right. Apple is taking time to consider which functionalities best suit which device.
I don’t think they will postpone iPad 2 to the fall, though. After all the hype at the moment, not coming out with a new tablet this spring would be seen as a sign of weakness.
I agree, monetary use for NFC – Near Field Communication for the readers who are not familiar with the term, very short distance for simple transactions – is an iPhone nobrainer. But in terms of gaming and social sharing, when more and more people with iPads are together in the same space even briefly, I can see uses for NFC as well.
The lo-end wifi-version this spring and the 3G version later scenario sounds possible.
Yes, iPad has an use for NFC, but not without a NFC capable iPhone.
HP’s WebOS and Touch-To-Share is a good example of simple and useful functionality (HP did a smart move and was the first one to claim the concept. Something that Nokia could have done years ago.)
I’m not so sure that iPad is not something you want to rub against cashier systems nor that rubbing-iPads-together-with-friends would make a good sales pitch what can you trade? Rubbing iPhones together for switching contact info/photos sounds more likely. And when Apple introduces NFC there will be Visa/Mastercard-guys on set.
At some point they will release NCF MacBooks (maybe even TimeCapsules and Apple TVs), that will bring even more sense to the use of NFC for customers not living in major cities.
Well, every second line exalting the iPad includes the words sensual and intimate, so rubbing them together isn’t that farfetched.
In addition to photos and contact info, I could see a lot of potential for games including NFC implementation. Badges, chips, ingame acquisitions, custom mods, whatever. It’s not far in the future that kids will be playing together, one iPad each.